The U.S. presidential race is proving to be highly competitive, with polls indicating a tight contest just two days before the first and potentially only televised debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Recent surveys show that Trump commands unwavering support from roughly half of voters, despite his status as a convicted criminal and his role in the effort to overturn the 2020 election results.
Harris, who entered the race after President Biden dropped out in July, has quickly evolved from a largely overlooked vice president to a credible challenger. However, current polling suggests she has yet to achieve a significant breakthrough, resulting in a neck-and-neck race. A Siena College poll indicates Trump leads Harris nationally by a narrow margin of 48 to 47 percent, well within the margin of error.
U.S. presidential elections rely on state-by-state outcomes rather than the national popular vote, making key swing states crucial. The polling suggests that Harris holds a slight advantage in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, while being tied in several other pivotal states, including Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona. A YouGov poll also shows Harris ahead by one percentage point in Michigan and Wisconsin, and tied in Pennsylvania.
The electoral landscape remains chaotic, with Biden, at 81 years old, having exited the race amid age-related concerns, and Trump narrowly surviving an assassination attempt at a rally. There are also persistent fears regarding Trump’s potential refusal to concede if he loses in November.
Despite the tumult, both candidates appear to have solidified loyal bases, resulting in a nearly even split among voters. Trump will be under pressure to moderate his typically aggressive style in the presence of Harris, who is vying to become the first female president of the United States.
Harris aims at delivering an optimistic, forward-looking message that contrasts sharply with Trump’s dire warnings about the future of the country without his leadership. Nonetheless, she has faced criticism for her focus on unity and optimism at the expense of concrete policies. In response to these critiques, her campaign released a policy platform addressing issues such as unions, cost-of-living concerns, and healthcare.
Navigating the debate will be a challenge for Harris, as Trump is known for making false statements and provoking his opponents. Biden struggled in his only debate against Trump, illustrating the difficulty Harris may face.
Trump has also subjected Harris to racist and sexist taunts, mispronouncing her name and labeling her as “crazy” and a “Marxist.” Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg noted the extraordinary focus and discipline required for Harris to engage effectively in a debate with Trump.
After the debate, the Harris campaign plans to visit battleground states, starting in North Carolina and then heading to Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, Trump continues to rally his mostly white, working-class base, delivering dark speeches that frame Democrats as a “rogue regime.” On his social media platform, he has threatened to impose harsh prison sentences on anyone he accuses of intending to “cheat” in the upcoming election.