Philippines Faces Political Crisis Amid Marcos-Duterte Rivalry
As the vibrant and contentious two-months election campaign concludes, the Philippines finds itself embroiled in a fierce political contest between its two most influential families—the Marcoses and the Dutertes. The ongoing mid-term elections have become a critical battleground revealing deep fractures within the country’s ruling dynasties and casting uncertainty over the future of President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte.
Despite a history of electoral dominance, the Marcos camp faced disappointing results in this year’s senatorial race. Out of 12 successful candidates only six are aligned with Marcos, with one—Camille Villarreceiving endorsements from both Marcos and Duterte. Notably, four senators backing Duterte including President Marcos’s sister Imee Marcos secured top positions surpassing several Marcos-backed candidates. This outcome suggests a weakened grip on legislative power for the president and raises doubts about his ability to push through key agenda items in the final three years of his term.
Relations between President Marcos and Vice President Sara Duterte have sharply deteriorated over the past year. Their alliance which helped Marcos clinch victory in 2022 has fractured amid accusations and personal insults. Marcos has accused Duterte of threatening his life, while Duterte has publicly expressed her disdain, claiming she dreamed of decapitating him. The situation worsened earlier this year with the impeachment proceedings initiated against Duterte by Marcos allies and Marcos’s decision to send Duterte’s father, former President Rodrigo Duterte to face charges at the International Criminal Court over his war on drugs—a move seen by the Duterte camp as a personal betrayal.
The impeachment effort against Duterte hinges on securing a two-thirds majority in the 24-seat Senate making the mid-term elections a pivotal moment. However, many senators drawn from influential political families and showbiz backgrounds are known to prioritize their own ambitions and public opinion. Expert Cleve Arguelles notes that senators often side with the populace to safeguard their political futures, complicating efforts to remove Duterte.
Public sentiment has been unfavorable towards Marcos recently, with his economic management and leadership style drawing criticism. Campaign speeches by Duterte, featuring emotional appeals about her father’s treatment and her own political aspirations, have resonated with voters, especially in Davao, her stronghold. Meanwhile, Marcos faces challenges in maintaining his authority amid declining popularity and internal dissent.
The upcoming impeachment trial slated to begin in July promises to be a turbulent chapter in Philippine politics. Both Marcos and Duterte’s allies are engaged in behind-the-scenes lobbying to sway senators but a successful impeachment remains historically unprecedented in the country.
Amid the chaos, some surprising electoral wins such as those of liberal candidates Bam Aquino and Francis Pangilinan indicate a possible shift in public mood favoring politicians outside the Marcos-Duterte feud. Their victories suggest that a segment of the electorate desires a different direction potentially influencing the impeachment proceedings.
As the country braces for a year of political upheaval, analysts warn that the Philippines has never experienced such a deep and personal rift between its top leaders making this one of the most turbulent periods in recent history. The coming months will reveal whether the Marcos-Duterte rivalry will reshape the nation’s political landscape or lead to further instability.
